Valuation
What the market is actually telling you
July 14, 2026 · Last updated: August 24, 2026
What is the San Francisco luxury market doing right now?
At the top of the San Francisco market, value is set less by comparable sales than by scarcity and buyer depth — how many buyers truly exist for a given property, at a given price, in a given season. Comparables thin out precisely where decisions become largest, so market value here is judgment informed by evidence, not dictated by it.
In most markets, value is what comparable sales say it is. At the top of the Northern California market, comparables thin out precisely where the decisions become largest: there are only so many legacy estates, protected views and double lots, and no two are alike. Market value here is a judgment about scarcity and buyer depth — how many buyers truly exist for this property, at this price, in this season — informed by the evidence rather than dictated by it. That judgment is built by watching a market closely for three decades: what traded, what didn't, and why.
Questions clients ask
- Why are comparable sales less useful for luxury homes?
- Because comparables thin out precisely where decisions become largest: there are only so many legacy estates, protected views and double lots, and no two are alike. Evidence informs the judgment; it cannot dictate it.
- What determines market value at the top of the market?
- Scarcity and buyer depth — how many buyers truly exist for a particular property, at a particular price, in a particular season — read against what has traded, what has not, and why.
- How is that judgment built?
- By watching a market closely for three decades: what traded, what didn't, and why.